Anthropic IPO: Investors Push Valuation Down to $1.5 Trillion

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Anthropic IPO: Investors Push Valuation Down to $1.5 Trillion.

Why the dream of a $2 trillion valuation is shrinking right now

Anthropic posted $16.8 billion in revenue in the third quarter – a 45 percent increase. Sounds strong, but it's the slowest jump in a long time: the quarter before that saw 140 percent growth. That number is the reason investors are sharply lowering their sights for the planned listing in November. Instead of the recently discussed $2 trillion, only around $1.5 trillion is on the table, according to four people familiar with the negotiations. That's what the news agency Reuters reports, citing insiders.

Things get really interesting when you put the scale in perspective: a $1.5 trillion valuation is still one of the largest corporate valuations ever set to hit the stock market. But the air is getting thinner – and that's exactly what everyone who bet on the AI boom is now feeling.

What's making investors nervous – and why revenue is under such close scrutiny

Wall Street is looking unusually far into the future when it comes to Anthropic. As the specialist portal Marketscreener reports, citing insiders, bankers and investors are tying the valuation specifically to a revenue forecast: Anthropic is expected to generate between $190 and $200 billion in 2028. Anyone who hits that number gets the top valuation – anyone who falls short risks a significantly lower classification.

On top of that come the exploding costs of AI financing. Training the models eats up billions, data centers are being expanded, the workforce is growing – and the money has to come from somewhere. Four insiders confirm to Reuters that it's precisely this combination of slower growth and higher costs that has dampened the mood.

Why the IPO itself is now up for debate

It's not just the valuation fantasies that are wobbling. As the financial analysis site Wolfgangrenz reports, citing insiders, the IPO planned for November is being put under internal scrutiny. There's no official postponement – but the back-and-forth shows how tense the situation is behind the scenes.

For you as an observer, that means: even if Anthropic does go public, the price won't be a slam dunk. The valuation will have to measure up against the 2028 revenue – and the bar is set extremely high at $190 to $200 billion.

What's known so far – and what isn't

What's confirmed: Anthropic is preparing an IPO, talks between the company, its existing investors, and banks are ongoing, and valuation expectations have moved downward. What remains open is whether the November date holds, what the final price will be, and what role the 2028 revenue forecast will ultimately play. What's also clear: $2 trillion was never an official target, merely a figure discussed in banker conversations.

The industry portal The Decoder sums up the mood in one clear sentence: slower growth and a difficult market environment could turn this into the biggest stock-market test for the AI boom.