Bolsonaro rallies supporters ahead of runoff against Lula

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Bolsonaro rallies supporters ahead of runoff against Lula.

Brazil decides its presidency on October 25 — and the right-wing candidate Flavio Bolsonaro heads into the runoff against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva with clear momentum. The eldest son of former president Jair Bolsonaro had won the first round by a narrow margin, despite consistently trailing in the polls.

Here's what it means for you: The right-wing camp is closing ranks at exactly the phase where every vote counts. Lula, who entered the first round as incumbent, is now under pressure — he must mobilize his own base while also winning back swing voters if he wants to stop his challenger's run.

Why the first round has shifted the starting position

The fact that Flavio Bolsonaro emerged as the winner of the first round despite consistently weaker polling numbers has fundamentally changed the starting position for the runoff. In Brazil, whoever wins the first round not only brings momentum but often also wins over those voter groups whose own candidates have already been eliminated. Flavio Bolsonaro is now banking on exactly this mechanism — and is receiving support from a direction that had kept its distance in the first round.

Four parties switch to the Bolsonaro camp

According to Handelsblatt, pledges from several center-right and right-wing parties are now on the table. Specifically, it's about PP, Uniao Brasil, Republicanos, and Podemos — four formations that had remained neutral in the first-round campaign. Their switch to the Bolsonaro camp brings voter support, campaign structures, and above all parliamentary networks that could prove decisive in the final stretch.

Why these pledges carry particular weight in a fragmented Congress

The Brazilian Congress is highly fragmented: more than twenty parties are currently represented there. Anyone who wants to push through laws must forge multiple alliances — in both chambers. With the partners now pledged, Flavio Bolsonaro could, after a victory on October 25, forge a coalition with comfortable majorities in both houses of parliament. It is precisely this arithmetic majority that often makes the difference in Brazil between a president who governs and one who is blocked.

The spicy detail: former Lula ministers in the new camp

One aspect that further intensifies the dynamic of the final stretch is particularly explosive: among the legislators now switching to the Bolsonaro camp are politicians who previously held influential positions in Lula's government — including ministerial posts. For the incumbent, this sends a double signal. Not only is he losing supporters from the political center, but specifically those people who once helped carry his own governing network.

What matters until October 25

Both sides have just under three weeks to play to their respective strengths. Flavio Bolsonaro can use the structures of his new coalition partners to push into regions that may not have been sufficiently covered in the first round. Lula is counting on his core voters turning out on election day — a factor that regularly decides victory and defeat in Brazilian runoffs. According to Handelsblatt, one thing is certain: four parties that remained neutral in the first round now stand behind Flavio Bolsonaro — and with them, legislators who once held responsibility in Lula's government.