Can a 150-Year-Old Graphic Really Predict the Stock Market?
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A curve from the 19th century is supposed to predict markets with "astonishing precision" – and advises selling stocks for 2026. Handelsblatt has pulled the graphic from its archive and asks the crucial question.
AI MODIFIEDTVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Can a 150-Year-Old Graphic Really Predict the Stock Market.
Can a 150-year-old graphic really predict stock market prices? Handelsblatt has pulled a curve from the 19th century out of its archive – and the claim attached to it is staggering: The line is supposed to foresee market developments with "astonishing precision." For 2026, it recommends selling stocks.
Before you reshuffle your portfolio now, a cool look is worthwhile. Because the question Handelsblatt itself asks – "How reliable is that really?" – is more than justified.
What the old curve actually claims
The basic idea: A data series from the 19th century that supposedly shows recurring patterns in the markets. The curve is said to have fit "astonishingly precisely" in the past, and a signal for the coming years is now derived from this. Specifically for 2026: out of stocks.
It sounds almost too good to be true at first. And that's exactly where the skepticism sets in.
Why reliability falls by the wayside
A 150-year-old graphic spans a very long time period. In those one and a half centuries, there were two world wars, currency reforms, the invention of the internet, and the rise of artificial intelligence. If a single line is supposed to squeeze all of that into a recurring pattern, the question is justified of what is actually being compared here – and what was drawn to fit in hindsight.
In addition, there's a psychological effect: The recommendation to "sell stocks" sticks. Selling is the headline that grabs attention – and in the end you've forgotten the context, but the word is still in your head.
What this means for your investments
If you're currently wondering whether you should react to such a graphic: It's at most one building block in your decision, not the foundation. Those who invest their money for the long term are usually better served by broad diversification, low costs, and a clear plan than by the latest sensational pattern from the archive.
The full article in Handelsblatt explains the curve in detail and provides critical context:
What a 150-year-old graphic says about today's stock market developments
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