Farmer's Rule: After a Warm October, an Extremely Cold Winter Looms

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Record heat in summer, a clearly too-warm October — and already an age-old farmer's rule is predicting an extreme winter. Meteorologist Dominik Jung takes up the folk wisdom in his current weather column for the Frankfurter Rundschau and offers an initial look at the weather models.

The rule is as old as it is simple: if October was exceptionally mild, a bitter winter is supposed to follow. Jung assesses how much truth it contains — and how much is better left unconfirmed.

What the October Rule Actually Says

The October rule is one of the most well-known farmer's rules of all time. The same core idea appears in countless regional variants: warm autumn, cold winter. Over generations, people distilled their weather observations into such rhymes — long before weather stations or computer models existed.

What the rule is not: a meteorological prediction. It is not based on data, but on handed-down experiential wisdom. Sometimes it's right, sometimes it isn't — and that is precisely the point. Anyone banking on a single farmer's rule today is significantly overestimating its value.

What the Weather Models Really Show

Jung writes that the weather models are already sketching an initial picture for the winter. What concrete scenarios these are — prolonged frost with masses of snow, a mild westerly weather pattern, or simply an average winter — and how he assesses the probabilities, can be read in detail in his column.

What you should keep in mind: long-range forecasts over several months remain rough tendencies. Individual model runs can differ significantly from week to week. A serious statement about the winter is still not possible in October.

Why the Rule Never Disappears Anyway

Farmer's rules work on a simple principle: if they come true, they stand out — if they don't, we quickly forget them. That is not science, but gut feeling with a long tradition. Precisely for this reason, the October rule resurfaces in the media with every mild autumn.

Those who want to know more accurately should look at the seasonal forecasts from reputable weather services — and take them, as Jung emphasizes in his column, with a large dose of caution. The complete assessment with all details can be found in the linked article in the Frankfurter Rundschau.