Khodorkovsky warns: Putin would start the next war after peace

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Khodorkovsky warns: Putin would start the next war after peace.

Mikhail Khodorkovsky was once part of Putin's circle; today he is one of the sharpest voices against the Kremlin chief. In a recent conversation, the Russian opposition figure warns: If the West gives in on Ukraine, the war does not end. Putin will begin the next one.

That sounds drastic, but follows a logic Khodorkovsky knows from decades of closeness to the system. Anyone who grants Russia peace today, without changing the power structures, only buys a pause – and the next escalation along with it.

Putin's war is his survival promise

At the core of Khodorkovsky's argument is a hard analysis: A Putin without an enemy image is a Putin without domestic political legitimacy. Once Ukraine is pacified, the question arises of what Russia spent the armaments billions on – and against whom the Kremlin chief can mobilize next. In the conversation documented by the Frankfurter Rundschau, Khodorkovsky makes precisely this warning unmistakably clear.

Handelsblatt provides the background: Khodorkovsky sees almost the entire Russian elite against the war – at the same time he believes Putin can continue the war as long as China keeps delivering. The logic behind it: The elite may not want the war, but has no alternative to Putin. And Beijing has no interest in letting the Russian partner fall.

As long as China continues to supply Russia, the situation can deteriorate endlessly and Putin will nevertheless continue the war.

Russian military planning speaks its own language

Khodorkovsky's warning does not come out of nowhere. Western security experts observe, according to a report on MSN, a clear tendency toward rearmament: Russia is massively expanding its military, the Kremlin chief is preparing for a "total war." What sounds like exaggeration is the unanimous reading of Western analysts.

Der Tagesspiegel reports, citing Kremlin insiders, even more sharply: Vladimir Putin is said to reject peace negotiations with Ukraine and is instead preparing an escalation of the conflict. The direction is clear – not negotiation, but expansion.

How great is the danger really?

Bayerischer Rundfunk soberly assesses the situation. The central statement of the experts cited by BR: Putin will neither militarily nor politically win this war. The decisive question is not if, but how much damage will be done by then – and how long Europe needs to prepare for what comes after.

Lithuanian security experts, reported by Watson, share this assessment and see Russia as a permanent threat to all of Europe. An investigative analysis by Tagesschau goes even further: As early as 2029, according to the forecast, Russia could be ready for a conventional conflict with NATO. Whether this happens depends primarily on how united the West stands against the Kremlin then. Economic pressure on Russia is, however, growing.

What this means for you

Khodorkovsky's warning is not a lone opinion of an opposition figure. It aligns with what Western security experts, intelligence services and Kremlin insiders observe – rearmament is underway, negotiations are being blocked, China supports the system. For you this means: Every debate about "peace through giving in" ignores the decisive question – what comes after? Khodorkovsky's answer is clear. And it carries the weight of a man who knows the system from close up.