Poll Shock: Union Falls to Record Low – It Depends Entirely on the SPD

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Poll Shock: Union Falls to Record Low – It Depends Entirely on the SPD.

While the black-red coalition in Berlin celebrates its 100-day anniversary, the poll numbers for CDU and CSU are plummeting: various institutes see the Union between 17.5 and 20 percent — as weak as it has been in nearly five years. The AfD is simultaneously at 28 to 30 percent and is expanding its lead over the political center to levels never seen before in some cases.

FOCUS-online chief correspondent Ulrich Reitz classifies the situation in an analysis as a historic turning point: The Union is politically entirely dependent on the SPD. If the black-red alliance dissolves, Red-Red-Green becomes a mathematical option for power. The punchline: The weaker the Union stands, the less it can afford to risk the coalition.

What the polls really show

The institutes arrive at different numbers — but the direction is clear:

• YouGov (WELT): Union 20 percent, AfD 28 percent — an eight-point gap, according to WELT the largest ever measured lead of the AfD over the Union.
• Survey via nius.de: Union for the first time in this legislative period below 20 percent, AfD at 29 percent, 9.5 points ahead — the previous record was reportedly 9.0 points.
• INSA for BILD (nius.de): Union at 17.5 percent — the worst ever measured value for the Union; AfD with a 13-point lead.
• Forsa for RTL/n-tv (BILD): Union and SPD together only 37 percent at the coalition's 100-day anniversary.

According to Focus, the Union has dropped below the 20-percent mark for the first time in nearly five years. The AfD is recording the largest ever measured lead in multiple surveys. An additional shift: In the YouGov survey, the SPD has slipped behind the Greens — a signal that extends beyond the Union's debacle.

Why a course change now risks everything

Reitz's core thesis: The Union has built itself a protective wall with the governing alliance against the AfD, which only holds in combination with the SPD. A substantive course change could blow up the coalition — and then mathematically open the path for the SPD, Greens, and Left.

The dilemma: The SPD itself only reaches around 14 percent in the polls (MSN: "SPD and Greens tied at 14 percent"). It doesn't shine, but becomes the kingmaker — not through strength, but through the Union's weakness. Whoever risks the black-red pact risks more than an alliance: the only remaining block against a governing option to the left of center.

What this means for the coming months

The data basis remains fragile. The fluctuations between the institutes are significant — Union ranges from 17.5 (INSA/BILD) to 20 percent (YouGov), AfD from 28 to 30 percent. Individual surveys are snapshots, not forecasts. Nevertheless, the direction is clear — and it falls precisely in the coalition's first 100 days. Reitz's diagnosis: The political center is in crisis.

For Merz, this means: every government decision also becomes a question of survival. The room for maneuver for his own accents shrinks with every percentage point the Union loses. What looks like stability is a balancing act — held up by an SPD that itself only holds about 14 percent and nevertheless decides on the majority.