Copernicus Expects 2026 to Be More Than 1.5 Degrees Warmer

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What Copernicus Expects for 2026

According to Focus Panorama, the EU climate service Copernicus considers it almost certain that global warming will exceed 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels in 2026.

This would make 2026 the second calendar year above this threshold, after 2024. Two other reports, from Zeit Online and Handelsblatt, also repeat this forecast for 2026.

2024 Was Already Above 1.5 Degrees

According to Handelsblatt, global warming already exceeded 1.5 degrees for the first time in a calendar year in 2024. The current forecast would therefore point to a second annual figure above this threshold.

At the same time, the report said that the warmest October ever recorded had been measured. According to Handelsblatt, the forecast for 2026 is becoming increasingly clear.

The Current Picture: Almost Certain, but Still a Forecast

The three reports agree on their key conclusion: Copernicus expects global warming to exceed 1.5 degrees in the 2026 calendar year with a high degree of certainty. The reference point remains the period before industrialization.

This is therefore not about just another hot month, but about a possible second annual figure above the threshold. According to the available information, the extent of the warming will already be decisive this year.

As of: November 6, 2026, further details to follow.