BBVA poised for mega-payout: RBC expects €41.4 billion by 2028

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents BBVA poised for mega-payout: RBC expects €41.4 billion by 2028.

When a bank suddenly wants to pay out 15 percent more to its shareholders than previously thought, that gets noticed. That's exactly what's shaping up, according to a new forecast from analyst firm RBC for Spanish major bank BBVA. By 2028, the institution is set to hand out around €41.4 billion to its shareholders – a 15 percent increase over previous expectations.

For you as a (potential) investor, this concretely means: dividends and share buybacks combined are expected to rise sharply at BBVA. BBVA is no unknown player – as one of Spain's largest banks and with a strong presence in Latin America, it's one of the heavyweights in the European banking sector.

What RBC specifically puts on the table for BBVA

The RBC forecast combines two building blocks: strong earnings and a resulting hefty payout. The analyst firm expects BBVA to generate around €50 billion in total profit over the period 2025 to 2028. From this pot, the €41.4 billion is then to flow to the shareholders – via dividends, buybacks, or a combination of both.

The analyst firm estimates that the bank will earn around €50 billion between 2025 and 2028, and forecasts an average annual shareholder return of 8.4 percent over that period.

8.4 percent return – what's behind it?

The average annual return of 8.4 percent that RBC is putting on the table for BBVA shareholders for 2025 to 2028 is a total-return figure. It therefore accounts for not just the dividend, but also the price performance of the stock itself. Anyone buying BBVA as a pure dividend stock should keep in mind: the complete performance is baked into those 8.4 percent.

What this means for you as an investor

If you already hold BBVA shares or are considering getting in, the RBC forecast gives you a direction: the firm expects noticeably more cash for shareholders than previously assumed. However, an analyst forecast remains exactly that – an estimate. The actual amounts depend on real business performance: economic conditions, the interest-rate environment, cost trends, and possible one-off factors can shift the result up or down.