Midterms: Is Trump Falling? 7 Candidates Could Decide the Outcome

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Midterms: Is Trump Falling? 7 Candidates Could Decide the Outcome.

On November 3, seven candidates will be at the center of the 2026 US midterm elections because their battles in seven key states could determine the outcome of the election and the political landscape for Trump. Paris Match profiles the seven: Mary Peltola in Alaska, James Talarico in Texas, Susan Collins in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan, Sherrod Brown in Ohio, Adam Hamilton in Kansas and Jon Ossoff in Georgia.

The House Looks Secure — The Senate Becomes the Real Battlefield

The starting position is asymmetric. According to Paris Match, the House of Representatives already appears to belong to the Democrats. The Senate is therefore moving to the center of the race. In Alaska, Mary Peltola could defeat Dan Sullivan and thus potentially shift the Senate majority toward the Democrats.

The question, therefore, is not only whether Trump will suffer a defeat. What matters is how strong his party remains in the Senate, how Republicans handle their candidates and what signals voters send after November 3. Trump does not bear sole responsibility for the results in several districts: He supported the weaker Ken Paxton in Texas, backed incumbent Senator Roger Marshall in Kansas and attacked El-Sayed as a terrorist. The outcomes of these races show how much influence the president exerts on the Republican side.

Alaska: Mary Peltola Between a Lead and a Campaign Crisis

Mary Peltola could become the first woman of Indigenous descent to enter the US Senate. Born in Anchorage in 1973, she took office in 2022 and is now running against Republican Senator Dan Sullivan. Polls put her 1 to 2 percentage points ahead.

Her campaign is therefore also a test of strength for Trump. Former campaign manager Elisa Rios, who was dismissed in August, claimed in the New York Times that Peltola's team had hired the opposition's name checker using the civilian name Dan J. Sullivan to confuse voters. Trump demanded that his Justice Department file a nationwide lawsuit. Peltola denies the allegations. According to Paris Match, a victory would therefore be clouded by suspicions of electoral manipulation.

Texas: Talarico's Campaign Costs More Than Any Previous Senate Campaign

In Texas, the stakes go beyond a single seat. The 37-year-old James Talarico would become the first Democratic senator since 1988 in the strongly Republican state. Trump supported incumbent Ken Paxton in the primary, while popular Senator John Cornyn lost. Paxton is now considered a weak opponent. Prediction markets give Talarico a 72 percent chance of winning, while polls put his average lead at less than three points.

The financial commitment makes the race extraordinary: Elon Musk invested $158 million in Paxton's campaign, while Talarico raised $146 million himself. Paris Match thus describes the Senate race as the most expensive in its history. Talarico is also politically distinctive, arguing as a devout progressive Christian, using the Bible in his speeches and counting 2.7 million followers on social media.

Maine and Michigan: Collins Fights to Hold Her Seat, El-Sayed for a Breakthrough

Susan Collins is running for a sixth time in Maine. The 73-year-old has represented the state since 1996 and chairs the Appropriations Committee. Her campaign is highlighting $1.5 billion in infrastructure assistance. She is narrowly behind Troy Jackson in the latest polls, but won in 2020 by 8.6 points. Collins then voted alongside some Republicans to impeach Trump in 2021 — a point Trump still holds against her.

In Michigan, Abdul El-Sayed is running against former FBI Director Mike Rogers. The doctor and former Rhodes Scholar became a political phenomenon only six months ago, but the latest polls nevertheless make him the clear favorite with a seven-point lead. His campaign is weighed down by an intraparty conflict: His support for the progressive activist Mahmoud Khan Mamdani and his dispute with his former primary opponent Haley Stevens are causing unrest. Barack Obama stood by El-Sayed at a campaign event this week.

Brown's Return and Hamilton's Historic Chance

Sherrod Brown is seeking to regain the Ohio Senate seat he vacated when JD Vance moved on to run for vice president. The longtime Democrat lost in 2024 but is now 2 to 4 points ahead. His defeat is linked in the text to the political “tsunami” under Trump. Brown is currently opposed by Republican Jon Husted, whose profile Trump describes by focusing on his football past and physical presence.

In Kansas, the 61-year-old Adam Hamilton is attempting something that has not been achieved since 1932: He wants to become a Democratic senator. Hamilton led the United Methodist Church of the Resurrection, which has 24,000 members, wrote around 30 books and officially switched to the Democrats only in late April 2026. His campaign focuses on economic relief, compromise and protecting institutions. Trump has repeatedly backed incumbent Roger Marshall. Hamilton leads the polls by 3 to 9 points.

Georgia: Ossoff Treats a Presidential Bid as Fantasy Football

With Jon Ossoff, another Democratic senator moves into the spotlight as the outcome takes shape. The Georgia senator is regularly asked about a future presidential campaign. He firmly rejects the idea, however, calling it “Fantasy Football”. In this contest, it is not only the person on the ballot who matters: The victories of the seven candidates and their respective opponents are decisive — from Peltola in Alaska to Ossoff in Georgia.