Rheinmetall Cuts 2026 Forecast: Delays on Major Orders

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Rheinmetall now expects revenue of around 13.2 billion euros for the current year. The Düsseldorf-based defense conglomerate had previously forecast a range of 13.7 to 14.2 billion euros. At the same time, the forecast operating margin has been lowered from around 19 to 18.5 percent. The company attributes the adjustment to delays in major contracts and the delivery of artillery ammunition.

This makes the outlook for the full year weaker, even though the completed third quarter showed significant growth. The precise cause is therefore more important for understanding the news than the positive end to the quarter: A major project is not expected to be ordered as planned, while revenue from artillery ammunition is shifting into 2027.

Why “Arminius” Is Weighing on the Forecast

The main trigger is the awarding of the Boxer armored vehicle project “Arminius.”

Under this project, the Bundeswehr plans a comprehensive order for Boxer armored vehicles in various vehicle configurations. They are produced by Rheinmetall and KNDS. Industry circles have recently discussed figures of up to 3,000 vehicles.

As recently as August, CEO Armin Papperger was confident that the federal government would sign the contract by the end of the year. He put the volume of a first order for Rheinmetall at 12.4 billion euros. Further orders and service contracts were planned.

At that time, therefore, a major contract was taking shape whose potential start date was relevant for 2026. Rheinmetall now states that receipt of the corresponding order can no longer be expected in 2026. The forecast is therefore being adjusted. The decisive point is not necessarily that the entire project will not materialize, but the timing shift: The expected order is unlikely to have an impact in the current year.

The connection to the quarterly report is clear. The business is growing, while a major order is falling out of the current year's trajectory. The two must therefore be considered separately. The completed quarter can look strong even as the total for the current year gets worse.

Artillery Ammunition Shifts Revenue Into 2027

Rheinmetall is also announcing a timing shift in its artillery ammunition business.

According to the company, delays in batch acceptances are foreseeable in this area. The related revenue will therefore shift into 2027.

This part of the announcement changes the nature of the risk. It is not merely a matter of weaker expectations within 2026. Some of the expected revenue is falling into a later fiscal year. For interpreting the new full-year forecast, this means: Rheinmetall expects a changed distribution of business over time and, at the same time, a lower operating margin.

The two documented causes therefore have different time horizons. In the case of the “Arminius” project, the expected order receipt is missing in 2026, according to the company. In the case of artillery ammunition, revenue is initially deferred and shifts into the following year. In both cases, the focus is on timing rather than a blanket statement that the entire business is weaker.

The Third Quarter Provides the Counterbalance

32 percent revenue growth and a 62 percent increase in operating profit

In the third quarter, Rheinmetall increased revenue by 32 percent to 3.15 billion euros. Operating profit climbed by 62 percent to 553 million euros. At the same time, the operating margin improved from 14.8 to 17.5 percent.

Order intake in the completed quarter stood at 2.89 billion euros. These figures show that the company's operating business gained significant momentum during the quarter. The lowered full-year forecast therefore cannot be explained by a general weakening of the business.

The contradiction is instructive. Rheinmetall reported 3.15 billion euros in revenue for the third quarter, operating profit of 553 million euros and a margin of 17.5 percent. At the same time, it is lowering its full-year outlook. The outlook reflects the timing of major contracts and the distribution of ammunition revenue across the 2026 and 2027 fiscal years.

This is precisely the decisive point when assessing the figures. A look at third-quarter revenue, profit and margin describes the completed quarter. The new forecast describes what Rheinmetall now expects for the full year. Both perspectives are present, but they answer different questions.

The Market Reacts Strongly Negatively to the Delays

After-hours trading saw losses of more than 5 percent at times.

Following the announcement, Rheinmetall shares fell sharply on Wednesday. On Tradegate, the day's decline in after-hours trading was more than 5 percent at times. The immediate market reaction was therefore clearly negative.

This price movement shows that the adjustment to expectations was weighted more heavily than the positive figures from the third quarter. It does not, however, indicate when the delays will end or whether the deferred orders and batch acceptances will be realized as expected. For further interpretation, the two specifically identified points therefore remain decisive: the timing of a possible “Arminius” order and the further course of acceptances in the artillery ammunition segment.

The overall balance of the announcement is therefore clear. Rheinmetall is cutting its forecast again, identifies “Arminius” and artillery ammunition as two specific causes, and shifts part of the expected business activity into 2027. The third quarter was strong, with 32 percent revenue growth. Nevertheless, the shares are treating the timing delays as a clearly negative signal.