Spain’s Inflation Holds at 4.9% — October in Check

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On October 30, 2026, Spain’s statistics agency INE published a preliminary estimate for October. The annual inflation rate stands at 4.9% — unchanged from September, but at the highest level since February 2023. This ends a run of three months in which the annual rates increased.

An important distinction for interpreting the figures is the difference between the two periods: prices rose by 0.6% from September to October. That is even 0.3 percentage points more than in September. The stability at 4.9% therefore refers to the year-on-year comparison. At the same time, the monthly increase has now accumulated for nine consecutive months.

The report thus provides two signals at once: Price pressure remains on a monthly basis. On an annual basis, however, inflation did not rise further. Cheaper fuel prices in particular prevented the October rate from reaching an even higher level.

Why Cheaper Fuel Keeps the Rate at 4.9%

The fuel market reverses the year-on-year trend

Prices for fuel and lubricants for passenger cars fell in October, having risen in the same month a year earlier. This reversal reduced the fuel market’s contribution to inflation. ABC reports that the discounts granted in October slowed the rise in prices.

For diesel, the discount was extended throughout October to 20 cents per litre. For petrol, a reduction of 5 cents per litre remained in effect. Although the conditions for petrol were therefore more favourable than those for diesel, the larger diesel discount contributed correspondingly to the dampening effect on prices.

The development also shows why looking at the annual rate alone is not enough. Fuel prices can fall within a single month while prices in other product groups rise. This mixed movement produces the unchanged annual rate despite high levels of price increases.

Food and clothing rise more slowly

Food also contributed less to the rise in prices in October than it had a year earlier. Prices for food and non-alcoholic beverages did rise, but by less than in October 2025. Clothing followed a similar pattern, with prices also increasing more slowly than in the comparable month a year earlier.

Expansión cites not only fuel but, above all, the smaller increase in food prices as the reason the overall rate did not rise further above 4.9%. The movement therefore remains uneven: Price increases slowed in two major cost groups, while other areas continued to create upward pressure.

Tourism, Gas and Liquid Fuels Slow the Cooling

Package holidays remained relatively expensive

Prices for tourism packages also fell in October. However, they declined by less than in October 2025. As a result, this sector offset part of the price-dampening effect of fuel and food. For the overall rate, this means that travel became cheaper in the monthly comparison, but the year-on-year decline was smaller than it had been a year earlier.

According to the reports, two other items also weighed on the development. Prices for gas rose more sharply than they had a year earlier. Liquid fuels also increased in October, having fallen in the same month a year earlier. This runs counter to the trend in fuel and lubricants for passenger cars.

For you, this means that a cheaper price at the petrol station and lower package holiday costs do not automatically mean the entire basket of goods is becoming cheaper more quickly. The 4.9% reflects mixed price increases. Fuel and food dampen them, while tourism, gas and liquid fuels push in the opposite direction.

The 3.1% Show Lower but Still-Present Price Pressure

The core excluding unprocessed food and energy

INE estimates underlying inflation at 3.1% for October. This indicator excludes unprocessed food and energy products from the basket. It therefore stands 1.8 percentage points below the overall index and at the level of March 2024.

The gap is relevant for planning: The overall index is influenced by factors such as energy and unprocessed food. The 3.1% show that price increases in the rest of the basket are more moderate. But they have not disappeared.

The annual rate for the harmonised European price index IPCA also stands at 4.9%. It fell by 0.1 percentage points from September. The monthly change in IPCA is 0.5%; the underlying IPCA rate is also estimated at 3.1%.

The current figures are preliminary. INE plans to publish the final IPC data for October on November 13. Until then, one thing is clear: The annual rate remains at 4.9%, the monthly price increase accelerates to 0.6%, and the easing comes primarily from the fuel market.