Who contributed to the job increase? Terra Nova pushes back against the OID

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Who contributed to the job increase? Terra Nova pushes back against the OID.

More than a third of the employment increase is attributable, according to an analysis by the left-wing think tank Terra Nova, to foreign nationals with non-European citizenship. In doing so, the left-wing think tank calls into question a report by the Observatoire de l'immigration et de la démographie, or OID for short. When weighing arguments on work and immigration, this counter-calculation is exactly what matters.

Le Monde situates the dispute not only in statistical terms. The OID is funded in part by the Fonds Périclès of billionaire Pierre-Edouard Stérin; the newspaper describes Stérin as reactionary and the OID as a think tank close to the far right. At the same time, Terra Nova is explicitly introduced in the report as a left-wing think tank.

The two sides, however, use different concepts and answer different questions. One analysis focuses on the frequency of employment, the other on the contribution to the increase in employment. Precisely for that reason, the specific metric matters.

Two figures that are easily conflated

The OID's claim

In July, the OID complained, according to Le Monde, that immigrants work less frequently than non-immigrants. The report thus centers on a comparison of the employment rate — or the frequency of taking up work.

Terra Nova's counter-calculation

Terra Nova, by contrast, examines the period between 2021 and 2023. According to the analysis summarized by Le Monde, foreign nationals with non-European citizenship contributed more than a third to the increase in employment.

The left-wing think tank is thereby answering a different question than the OID: not only whether a group works more or less often, but what share it accounts for in the employment increase. Based on the metrics cited in the report, these statements do not necessarily contradict each other. "Contradicts" therefore describes Terra Nova's objection to the OID's conclusion — without there necessarily being two identically constructed metrics.

Why Le Monde names the OID's funding

According to Le Monde, the OID is funded in part by the Fonds Périclès. The fund is mentioned in connection with billionaire Pierre-Edouard Stérin. The newspaper calls Stérin reactionary. Already in the headline, Le Monde classifies the OID as a think tank close to the far right.

This political classification belongs to the context of the report. It does not automatically decide whether the OID's claim or Terra Nova's counter-calculation is more methodologically convincing. Above all, it shows that the report appears in a fiercely contested environment.

What is settled — and what details the report leaves open

The concrete details can be summed up quickly:

• 2021–2023: Terra Nova measures the contribution of foreign nationals with non-European citizenship to the employment increase.
• More than a third: Terra Nova attributes this share to foreign nationals with non-European citizenship.
• In July: The OID complained that immigrants work less frequently than non-immigrants.
• Fonds Périclès: Le Monde names it as one of the OID's funding sources.

The available details, however, cite neither absolute employment figures nor the precise boundary of the groups studied. The calculation method used also remains unspecified. Moreover, the terms "immigrants" and "foreign nationals with non-European citizenship" are used side by side; their exact overlap is not explained in the report.

What this means for your assessment

A share of more than a third of the employment increase does not mean that more than a third of all employed persons are foreign nationals with non-European citizenship. The share describes only this group's contribution to the increase in employment. Conversely, the statement about a lower employment rate does not automatically mean that this group made no significant contribution to growth.

When assessing the debate, therefore, cleanly separate the frequency of employment from the contribution to the employment increase. Always cite the time period and the group in question. That is the only way to avoid turning a legitimate question about definition into a hasty verdict on the entire data analysis.

What to take away

Note above all three points: the time period 2021–2023, the share of more than a third, and the political context surrounding the Fonds Périclès. The original Le Monde report summarizes the dispute between Terra Nova and the OID.