Trump After the Midterms: Will He Change His Foreign Policy?

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Trump After the Midterms: Will He Change His Foreign Policy.

On Thursday, Nov. 5, Nicole Bastian and Christian Lammert recorded a new episode of “Trump Watch.” Talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US are due to take place next week. The discussion with the foreign policy spokesman of the CDU parliamentary group, Jürgen Hardt, therefore comes at precisely the moment when the new political constellation in Washington could become reality.

The Talks Next Week Turn the Midterm Question into a Practical One

According to the preview, the midterm elections change the context in which Trump must make his international decisions. The new Democratic majorities in Congress are not the only change. It also remains unclear whether Trump himself is pursuing a lasting positive foreign policy legacy. Both factors raise the same question: Will they lead him to pursue a different policy toward Iran or in his handling of Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine?

This question becomes particularly tangible through the talks between Russia, Ukraine and the US next week. Hardt expects Trump to play a stronger and more consistent role in these negotiations. He anticipates that the US will then provide Ukraine with clearer and more sustained support. His reasoning can be condensed into a single sentence: “America ultimately wants to be on the right side.”

The expectation of Trump is therefore already clearer than the question of whether it will materialize. The episode does not examine Trump’s position on an isolated single issue, but rather presents a chain of effects: a weaker political position after the midterm elections, a possible desire to leave a positive legacy, and the resulting search for a credible role in Ukraine.

Following his losses in the midterm elections, important international decisions await the US president: CDU foreign policy expert Jürgen Hardt is optimistic about Ukraine and the situation in Iran.

Hardt Hopes for an End to the Iranian Military Conflict

On Iran, Hardt likewise expresses a hope rather than a certainty. He sees the possibility that the US and Iran could jointly find an end to the military conflict. This formulation is important: Hardt describes neither an already achieved breakthrough nor a concrete sequence of individual steps. His assessment refers to the possibility that both sides could find a common basis.

The counterargument lies precisely in this gap between hope and demonstrated developments. The preview cites no agreement, no date for negotiations and no condition by which the start of an Iranian peace process could be measured. Bastian and Lammert therefore explicitly discuss how well-founded these hopes are. The focus is not on the prospect alone, but on its credibility.

Hardt thus places two foreign policy goals side by side. In Iran, the issue is ending a military conflict. In Ukraine, it is Trump’s conduct during the negotiations with Russia. His post-midterm role is relevant in both cases. This connects the two subjects, even though the preview provides no concrete results or deadlines for either.

Trump’s Tariff Policy Opens a Second Front Alongside Iran and Ukraine

In the episode, the focus on foreign policy does not end with the two military and diplomatic crises. Hardt also addresses Trump’s tariff policy and gives the commercial dimension of US foreign policy its own place. He expects Europe to meet the US halfway. His proposal is even more concrete: the US and Europe could unite on trade policy toward China.

His aim is not merely closer relations between Washington and Europe. Together, both sides could demand and enforce better, clearer and binding rules from China. This formulation reveals a two-stage approach: first formulate the rules, then organize their enforcement. The episode uses the options discussed to assess how Trump will respond to this after the midterm elections.

The strongest counterargument to Hardt’s confidence is the uncertainty surrounding the political starting position. The new Democratic majorities in Congress may suggest a change of course; however, the desire for a lasting positive legacy may also lead Trump to visibly defend existing initiatives. Both effects are present in the preview. The discussion is intended to determine which will prevail, rather than deciding this in the preview.

The Week Before the Ukraine Talks Becomes the Real Test

The recording from Nov. 5 and the talks announced for the coming week form a narrow time frame. Within this window lie the questions Hardt raises: Can Trump end the Iran conflict with a joint solution, can he provide stronger and more consistent support for Ukraine in the talks with Russia, and how does he intend to proceed with Europe on tariffs and the rules toward China?

The episode therefore does not provide a complete blueprint. But it shows which decisions converge during the same phase. Hardt’s optimism concerns Ukraine and Iran; his proposal on tariffs and China adds an economic policy lever to these two subjects. Whether Trump’s foreign policy changes course after the midterms or gains continuity should become clear through these concrete decisions.

You can find the full discussion with Jürgen Hardt in the Handelsblatt Trump Watch podcast episode. It was moderated by Nicole Bastian and Christian Lammert and produced by René Gorny.