Trump Under Pressure: Polls Point to Republican Defeat in Congress

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Trump Under Pressure: Polls Point to Republican Defeat in Congress.

On 2 November 2026, at 10:43 a.m., Clarín and El Comercio published a joint EFE report with a clear message: The latest polls point to a significant change during the second half of Trump's presidency. The Democrats could take the majority in both the House and the Senate. For Trump, that would mean a Congress more likely to slow down his political agenda.

The picture becomes more concrete in the polls from The New York Times and the Siena Institute. They predict Republican defeats in six Senate races: in Michigan, Texas, Maine, Ohio, Kansas and Alaska. In Iowa, this assessment still produces no clear winner. The Democrats only need to defend Michigan; the other six seats currently belong to Republicans.

The potential upset is therefore taking shape not only in loosely contested districts. A victory in Texas would be the first Democratic Senate victory there since 1988. In Kansas, it would have to be the first since 1932. According to the source, however, Democrats need to retain all of their own seats and win at least four more from Republicans to secure a Senate majority.

The Senate could flip, while the House looks more certain to change hands

The starting point in the Senate

Six possible defeats do not automatically amount to a majority. It depends on how many Democrats successfully defend their own seats. The New York Times/Siena poll projects Republican defeats in the six states mentioned, leaves Iowa undecided and makes clear that the outcome of every individual race matters.

The financial dimension of the election year is extraordinary: According to EFE, the campaign for the midterms is the most expensive election campaign in the country's history to date. The potential political change is therefore taking place against the backdrop of a campaign in which large sums were spent on candidates' profiles. The source does not state how that money is distributed among the individual races.

The model for the House of Representatives

For the second chamber, the forecast is considerably clearer. The Decision Desk HQ model gives Democrats an 84 percent probability of winning control of the House of Representatives. That is five percentage points more than a week earlier.

The polling aggregator's corresponding figure for the Senate is 64 percent. That figure has also risen by seven percentage points compared with the level seven days ago. The direction is therefore clear in both chambers: According to the current polling picture, a Democratic victory is drawing closer.

A total of 35 Senate seats and 435 House seats will be decided on Tuesday. There are also more than 30 gubernatorial elections as well as other local offices. A victory in the gubernatorial elections would not automatically confirm the Democratic lead, but the number shows how extensive the election is.

Trump's popularity and prices weigh on the Republicans

38 percent approval in seven states

According to the New York Times/Siena poll, only 38 percent of Americans surveyed in the seven states examined approve of the Republican administration's performance. This low figure is particularly striking because Trump won the 2024 presidential election by a clear margin in five of the seven areas examined.

Republicans cite several pressures in the poll: high living costs, rising prices for food and fuel, the war in Iran and Trump's unpopularity. These factors affect not only the election of a presidential candidate. They also determine how the party can position its candidates for the Senate, House of Representatives and governor's offices.

The strongest counterargument to the polling situation is participation. As the analysts quoted in the report warn, Republicans are less likely to take part in voting-intention polls. According to them, such surveys have overestimated Democratic gains in the past. A percentage from the model therefore describes the expectation based on the available data, not the final election result.

54.8 million people have already voted before Tuesday

The scale of early participation is remarkable. According to the Election Lab at the University of Florida, more than 54.8 million US citizens have already voted early, either in person or by mail. At a comparable point during the 2022 midterms, the figure was approximately 45.9 million.

The number makes clear that the decision will not be made only on election day. On its own, however, it does not indicate which party will benefit. For that, the flow of ballots cast would have to be separated by party, district and state; the source does not provide such figures.

The reports by Clarín and El Comercio Lima thus provide a precise picture: The model points to 84 percent for the Democrats in the House of Representatives and 64 percent in the Senate. Trump and the Republicans could nevertheless retain a majority, because polls traditionally capture too few Republican voters. The results will only be certain after Tuesday's count.