Montenegro’s EU Bid: 2028 Is Explicitly on the Table

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Montenegro’s EU Bid: 2028 Is Explicitly on the Table.

Montenegro is the most advanced candidate country in the European Commission’s new analysis. Brussels considers it possible that the small Adriatic nation could already be admitted to the European Union in 2028. The Union would then have 28 member states following the United Kingdom’s departure.

The report is therefore more than just an enumeration of European accession wishes. It shows a clear ranking: Montenegro has a concrete schedule, Albania and Moldova at least have attainable next steps, while several other countries currently do not even have a binding roadmap. At the same time, 2028 is not yet a commitment. The Commission makes its assessment conditional on the implementation of reforms.

From Reforms to Accession Treaty: Montenegro’s Timeline

The coming weeks are decisive, according to the analysis. Montenegro must sustainably implement the reforms it has already adopted. If it succeeds, the country could already successfully conclude its accession negotiations by the end of the year.

The Commission would then consider it possible for the accession treaty to be signed in June 2027. The document would still have to be negotiated and ratified by all of the existing 27 member states. Only then would accession in 2028 be realistic. The “2028” date therefore describes the possible end of the process, not an already decided accession date.

Montenegro has around 620,000 inhabitants. By comparison, that is roughly the same as Düsseldorf. In this context, this is primarily a comparison of size. The actual benchmark for accession is the duration of the process: When Croatia became the most recent EU member, the entire procedure took around two years. Croatia joined on July 1, 2013. There have been no further EU accessions since then, until the United Kingdom’s departure reduced the number of members back to 27 in 2020.

Albania and Moldova Also Have Concrete Next Deadlines

According to the Commission’s assessment, Albania could conclude its accession negotiations by the end of 2027. For Moldova, completion by the beginning of 2028 is considered possible. For both countries, however, many months would still pass before actual accession.

The procedure is similar to Montenegro’s: First, an accession treaty must be fully negotiated and signed. Member states and the respective candidate country then ratify it. The stated dates therefore mark the possible conclusion of negotiations, not the day of accession.

The Commission emphasizes the same condition for all countries: Accession goals can only be achieved if all accession requirements are fulfilled. Montenegro’s prioritization therefore primarily reflects an assessment of the progress made so far. According to the analysis, Albania and Moldova also have good prospects, but they are behind Montenegro in terms of the timing of negotiations.

The Ukraine Wants to Accelerate: 2028 Is Its Goal

For the Ukraine, the Commission supports the ambitious goal of concluding accession negotiations by the end of 2028. The pace of reforms would have to be increased to achieve this. The analysis identifies the rule of law and the fight against corruption as particularly difficult.

Implementation must also succeed during the Russian war of aggression. In agriculture, the Commission proposes transitional arrangements that could significantly restrict financial support and access to the EU market for certain agricultural products. According to the source, accession during the war is politically almost inconceivable.

With around 39 million inhabitants, the Ukraine is by far the largest of the four candidate countries mentioned. Its area of around 604,000 square kilometers is almost 1.7 times the size of Germany. Economically and politically, membership would tie the country more closely to the West and provide additional security through the mutual assistance clause in the EU Treaty.

Six Countries Currently Have No Roadmap

Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, North Macedonia and Kosovo have, according to the analysis, not yet made enough progress to receive an accession roadmap. For Turkey and Georgia, the process is even “completely on ice” because of democratic and rule-of-law deficiencies.

The European Commission also pursues a strategic goal through enlargement. New members are expected to strengthen European influence and prevent countries from forming closer partnerships with Russia or China out of disappointment over the lack of an accession perspective. The Commission considers the Western Balkans particularly important because the region plays a central role in European security, energy supply and migration policy.

To contextualize the report, it is important to distinguish between the different prospects: Montenegro already has a plausible timeline through 2028. Albania and Moldova have solid next negotiation deadlines. Brussels supports an ambitious goal for Ukraine but demands greater speed. For the other countries mentioned, there is currently no comparable perspective.

Source: Tagesschau.