Trump’s Support for Bolsonaro: Could It Make Lula Stronger?

TVS News AI, editorially supervised, presents Trump’s Support for Bolsonaro: Could It Make Lula Stronger.

On Thursday evening local time, Donald Trump called the election in Brazil a “disgrace” and a “blame on the Brazilian population.” He made the remarks at Joint Base Andrews in Maryland. Just days earlier, he had effectively downplayed his support for the defeated presidential candidate Flávio Bolsonaro. The previous Sunday, the sitting president, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, had emerged as the clear winner. Despite his harsh words about Brazil, Trump’s course apparently did not prompt him to unequivocally support the opposition.

The cautious stance fits the contradictory signals of the past few days. On Tuesday, there was initially a signal in one direction, and on Wednesday, the opposite. On Thursday, Trump then caused further confusion. The/news analysis explains the contradiction in a different light: Trump’s closeness to Bolsonaro could actually take pressure off Lula because it neither gives Bolsonaro a reliable backing nor gives Brazil’s right wing a unified opponent against Lula.

Trump’s Signal Changes Leave Bolsonaro Without Firm Backing

Trump’s support remains nonbinding. Trump avoided explicitly supporting Bolsonaro’s claim to the presidency. Nor did he make any concrete promises of political or diplomatic support for Bolsonaro’s activities in Miami, Florida. This marks a clear difference from Trump’s words about alleged election fraud and a politically persecuted opposition leader who could put pressure on Lula.

On Wednesday, Trump said he did not want to get involved. About Lula, he even said: “I like Lula. I get along very well with him.” By Thursday evening, his criticism of the election was markedly harsher, but no concrete assistance for Bolsonaro followed. For Bolsonaro, that means he can publicly present the American president as an influential ally, but cannot rely on firm support.

Trump had enabled Flávio to enter the United States. The decision over how long he could remain was therefore at least partly in Washington’s hands. How uncertain Trump’s course was also became clear through the planned rally: An appearance and press conference had been prepared for Thursday at the Freedom Tower in Miami. It initially did not take place, and apparently no new date was planned.

Bolsonaro’s Own Supporters Keep Their Distance

The opposition is not disintegrating over a single external signal. It is also showing cracks within Bolsonaro’s own camp. Almost 60 million voters gave Flávio Bolsonaro their vote. But after the defeat, his attempt to lead the resistance against Lula from Miami is encountering resistance.

Rogerio Marinho, who ran Bolsonaro’s campaign and is secretary-general of the right-wing-conservative Partido Liberal, said: “Neither the PL nor I can claim that there was election fraud, because there is no evidence for it.” Re-elected São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas is also urging respect for the election result. He was long considered a favorite for the right-wing presidential nomination and a promising challenger to Lula.

The distance even extends to Congress. Politicians from the conservative Centrão described Flávio’s statement as “delusional.” The political pressure on his family also plays a role: Authorities are investigating Flávio over suspicious financial dealings, and his connections to the Banco Master scandal are also being examined. His supporters must therefore weigh how closely they should align themselves with a candidate whose claims of election fraud are not substantiated.

The Bolsonaro family nevertheless remains relevant. Flávio’s brother Eduardo, a former deputy, has lived in self-imposed exile in the United States for more than a year and prepared his brother’s first public appearance. He said on Instagram that the Freedom Tower was “exactly the right place to take up the fight against Lula’s left-wing regime.” The building once served as a reception point for hundreds of thousands of Cuban refugees who fled Fidel Castro’s communist regime.

Lula Can Politically Exploit the Right’s Weakness

Lula has room to maneuver if the ranks fail to find joint leadership. He has instructed his ministers not to further intensify the affair surrounding Bolsonaro. Instead, he can focus on a concrete task: The left holds only a minority in Congress. Moderate parties that value ministerial positions and political influence more than a fight from exile may be easier to bring on board.

Bolsonaro’s own statements make unified support more difficult. After arriving in Miami, he initially declared himself the “true elected president” of Brazil. Shortly afterward, he corrected himself and referred to himself only as the “leader of Brazil.” He equated himself with Charles de Gaulle, who went to London in 1940 and organized the resistance against the German occupation of France from there. He spoke of tyranny, a stolen election victory and political persecution, but presented no evidence of election fraud.

Lula himself uses Bolsonaro’s flight as a political stroke of luck. “When they asked for my passport, I handed it over,” he recalled of his own arrest. “Anyone with nothing to hide has no need to be afraid.” The statement is directed at the opposition figure, while Lula simultaneously wants to prevent her from gaining an additional stage through further disputes.

Trump’s Pragmatism Argues Against an Open Confrontation

Washington has a concrete interest in stable relations with Brasília. Trump had initially apparently hoped that an allegedly politically persecuted opposition leader could serve as leverage against Lula. After the election victory, however, he is likely to be more aware that Bolsonaro can hardly effectively challenge the result. There is also concern about placing strain on diplomatic relations.

The United States wants access to Brazil’s deposits of rare earths and other critical raw materials in order to reduce its dependence on China. Brazil is also gaining importance as an oil-producing country. There is therefore much to suggest that Trump should avoid further escalating the political conflict and treat relations with the rulers in Brasília pragmatically.

Secretary of State Marco Rubio, by contrast, represents a different line. For him, Lula’s reelection is a setback because he wants to expand American influence in Latin America and openly demonstrate his aversion to Lula. Brazil, Mexico and Canada—the continent’s three largest economies besides the United States—continue to be led by left-wing or liberal governments.

Bolsonaro’s Support Does Not Extend Far Beyond Trump

Trump’s wavering stance is not Flávio’s only problem. Almost all Latin American governments recognized Lula’s election victory, including the right-wing presidents of Chile, Peru and Paraguay. Colombia’s far-right president Abelardo de la Espriella, an ally of Bolsonaro, also emphasized the need for good relations between Brazil and Colombia.

Argentina’s President Javier Milei is an exception. He refused to congratulate Lula and apparently even helped with Bolsonaro’s flight. Milei’s closest adviser, Santiago Caputo, is said to have personally coordinated the departure. Bolsonaro thanked Milei for his courage, sense of justice and commitment to the rule of law. Economically, Argentina can hardly afford a rupture with Brazil, its most important trading partner, which means Milei’s support was probably motivated primarily by domestic politics.

The strongest counterargument to the thesis that Trump’s stance strengthens Lula is his vocal criticism of the election. It can make Bolsonaro internationally visible and attract attention. But Trump provides neither explicit political support nor concrete diplomatic assurances. At the same time, distance is growing within Bolsonaro’s circle. His almost 60 million votes demonstrate the strength of the camp, but not its ability to act together against Lula.

Flávio is therefore likely to apply for political asylum in the United States so that he is not treated as a refugee. His fate thus lies in the hands of a president whose course fluctuates between “disgrace,” election fraud, “I like Lula” and an announced event in Miami. In the short term, that helps Lula. His real challenge begins where Bolsonaro’s weakness ends: in Congress, where the left still holds only a minority.